MOSES-2016 Workshop
The MOSES-2016 Workshop
May 16-20
Linköping University
Department of Computer and Information Science
Sweden
Sweden
MOSES-2016
Welcome to the home page of the Modeling of Sustainable Economics Systems workshop 2016 !
The workshop aims at defining new research directions for modeling and simulation-based explorations of viable transitions into a sustainable future, by bringing together world experts from many sustainability/related disciplines.
The MOSES guiding principles
It is our predicament that we live in a finite world, and yet behave as if it were infinite. Steady exponential material growth with no limits on resource consumption and population is the dominant conceptual model used by today’s decision makers. This is an approximation of reality that is no longer accurate and has started to break down. If unsustainable behavior persists and ecological boundaries are ignored too long, societal collapse may occur.
At the same time we demand of decision makers that their decisions make good economic sense. Unchanged, the financial system with its current regulations and instruments, threatens to continue to force decision-making that undermines the wealth and prosperity it purports to support.
To avoid this and develop our society and economic systems to become sustainable, more sophisticated models are needed that include ecological and planetary boundaries as well as human social factors. The long-term success of the welfare economy depends on how well the financial system creates transparent, efficient and routine solutions to various societal problems.
Thus, we could demand of the financial system to facilitate the transformation towards a more efficient and sustainable use of finite resources. However, recurrent financial crises (financial bubbles) and various rigidities in the transition towards a circular economy are clear indications that the current financial system suffers from significant weaknesses. Instead of paving the way towards investments with long-term value, substantial private and public resources are used to cement a historic economic structure.
World Models are simulation models that integrate several aspects of ecological planetary boundaries and many detailed aspects of human society and its interaction with a resource- and pollution-limited planet. Some of such models are available in the Modelica equation-based language. The potential capabilities of these models have significantly improved when used with the recently developed advanced Modelica modeling, simulation, and control technology adapted for such applications. Uncertainty handling, sensitivity analysis, and plug-and-play of submodels are some capabilities.
It is possible to include the economy and the financial system in such an enhanced financial world model which can be used to test and evaluate many kinds of ideas and assumptions about the green economy.
The starting point is that the economy can be a powerful tool for the transition to sustainability. Research into this requires systems perspective and cross-disciplinary cooperation.
- Create a World model to incorporate the above perspectives.
- Formulate and test against the model changes to the financial system with the perspective of the following disciplines:
- Economics - financial performance of the green economy
- Social science - regional economic development and social cohesion
- Planetary science - ecological boundary adherence
- Business - green business development
- Create an open source flexible and configurable modeling and simulation toolbox for the abovementioned areas for use by
researchers and decision makers
Presentations
Peter Fritzson, Director of OSMC (Linköping University)
Introduction: Modeling of Sustainable Economic Systems
Jorgen Randers (Ulrich Golüke), Professor Center for Climate Strategy BI Norwegian Business School
Review of our Plans for the World 4 (PEEC) Model
Rodrigo Castro, Professor, Universidad de Buenos Aires
Overview of the Modelica-based System Dynamics Library
David Collste, PhD Student, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Overview of the Millennium Institute’s Threshold 21 iSDG Model and Method
Dale S. Rothman, Senior Scientist (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures), Associate Professor (Josef Korbel School for International StudiesUniversity of Denver)
Large-scale Integrated Modeling with International Futures
Peter Fritzson, Director of OSMC (Linköping University)
Quick Overview of Original MOSES Proposal
Steve Hinton, The Swedish Sustainable Economy Foundation
Modeling Sustainable Economic Systems
Sarah Cornell, Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Planetary Boundaries as potential measurable aspects in a global model
Deniz Koca, Assistant Professor,Lund University
The WORLD Model development in the SimRess Project
Steven Hinton
2030 Modelling a plan for Sweden
Jennifer Hinton, Co-director (the Post Growth Institute), PhD Student (Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Introducing the Not-for-Profit World and economic model for a brighter future
Steve Keen, Kingston University London
Monetary modelling & interplay with sustainability
Lars Olert
Economic Flow Constrained Modeling of Economic Systems
Peter Fritzson, Director of OSMC (Linköping University)
Rodrigo Castro, Professor, Universidad de Buenos Aires
Overview of the Modelica-based World2 and World3 models
Rodrigo Castro, Professor, Universidad de Buenos Aires
General Concepts about Global Modeling
Venue
The MOSES-2016 was held at Linköping University. Currently, Linköping University has approximately 27,000 students and 4.000 employees. Since the start in the late 1960s, Linköping University has been an innovator, creating new study programmes and new ways to tackle research problems. The university is an important driving force for regional development. However, the mission is greater—Linköping University is a national and international player. World-class research is conducted within cutting-edge domains such as new materials, IT and disability research. Students come from all across the globe, with over 80 nationalities represented at LiU. Linköping University is accessible by direct bus from downtown in 10-20 minutes and from the airport by taxi in 10-15 minutes, you can also walk to the university from downtown in about 40 minutes.
Organizing Comittee and Program Chairs
Peter Fritzson
Rodrigo Castro
Sarah Cornell
Collaborators
Bernhard Thiele
Alejandro Danós
Schedule
In blue: Workshop.
In yellow: Course on world modeling.
| Monday 16 | Tuesday 17 | Wednesday 18 | Thursday 19 | Friday 20 | ||||||
| 08.30-09.30 | Welcome. Introdution of participants. Overview of the week agenda. | Fritzson, All | Review of the World4 project. Pt. 2 | Goluke | Monetary systems modeling and their interplay with sustainability issues | Keen | The OpenModelica tool, Modelica language part 2 | Castro, Fritzson | Group discussions - Parallel activities | All |
| 09.30-10.15 | Review of the World4 project. Pt. 1 | Goluke | Identification of possible benefits of joint efforts regarding World4 | All | Economic flow constrained modeling economic systems | Olert, Thiele | Hands on textual modeling with simple Modelica models | Castro, All | Group discussions - Parallel activities | All |
| 10.15-10.45 | Coffee break | Coffee break | Coffee break | Coffee break | Coffee break | |||||
| 10.45-11.30 | Overview of the Modelica-based System Dynamics Library pt1 | Castro | The World model development in the SimRess project | Koca | Overview of the Modelica-based System Dynamics Library pt2 | Castro | World Modeling general concepts | Castro, All | Group discussions - Parallel activities | All |
| 11.30-12.15 | Identification of possible benefits of joint efforts regarding World4 | All | Discussion and identification of MOSES next steps. | All | An approach to ecological energy/emergy flow modeling. Discussion on integrated modeling. | Castro, All | Socioeconomic models with OpenModelica | Castro, All | Group discussions - Parallel activities | All |
| 12.15-13.30 | Lunch | Lunch | Lunch | Lunch | Lunch | |||||
| 13.30-14.15 | Overview of the Threshold 21 Model | Collste | Installation of OpenModelica on your laptop and quick test of World simulation | All | Discussion and identification of possible MOSES next steps, integrating economic modeling. | All | Free/TBD | Free/TBD | ||
| 14.15-15.00 | Overview of the International Futures Tool and Model | Rothman | The transition economy in Sweden and how to scale up to a global scale | S. Hinton | The Modelica language Part1, hands-on graphical modeling | Castro, Fritzson | Hands on with World 3 | Castro, All | Group discussions - Parallel activities | All |
| 15.00-15.45 | Presentation of the MOSES approach. Experiences in expressing ideas with System Dynamics and/or Types of research questions in global models | Fritzson, S. Hinton, Cornell, Castro | The non-for-profit approach to sustainability and how to represent it in world models | J. Hinton | The Modelica-based versions of World2 and World3 in a nutshell | Castro | Socioeconomic models with OpenModelica | Castro, All | Group discussions - Parallel activities | All |
| 15.45-16.15 | Coffee break | Coffee break | Coffee break | Coffee break | Coffee break | |||||
| 16.15-17.00 | Planetary Boundaries as potential measurable aspects in a global model | Cornell | Drafting/writing/modeling session part 1 | All | Hands on with World 3 | Castro, All | Hands on with other socioeconomic models | Castro, All | Wrap up. Final messages. Scheduling of activities for the upcoming months. | All |
| 17.00-17.45 | Identification of possible MOSES next steps. | All | Drafting/writing/modeling session part 2 | All | Drafting/writing/modeling session part 3 | All | Drafting/writing/modeling session part 4 | All | Wrap up. Final messages. Scheduling of activities for the upcoming months. | All |
Participants
Peter Fritzson
Sarah Cornell
Rodrigo Castro
David Collste
Steve Keen
Dale Rothman
Steven Hinton
Jeniffer Hinton
Ulrich Goluke
Bernhard Thiele
Lars Olert
Ola Leifler
Deniz Koca
Jonas Lagander
Stefan Anderberg
Ilaria Perissi
Sara Falsini
Contact
Peter Fritzson, peter.fritzson@liu.se
Modeling of
Sustainable Economic Systems